Risk framework - The decision making process for Climate Risk

The Risk, uncertainty and decision-making framework is a step-by-step process to help you assess what adaptation measures are most appropriate for your organisation or business.

It is based on standard decision-making and risk principles, and will help you answer the questions:

• What climate change risks could affect my decision?
• What adaptation measures are required, and when should they be implemented?

Do I need to consider my climate risks?

It is important for you to begin to understand your climate risks and manage these if:

• you are currently affected – directly or indirectly – by current weather or climate.
• you are making decisions with long-term consequences for land-use, built assets or population groups.
• this is an opportunity to get it right for new developments
• your organisation is sensitive to changes in average climate or climate variability.
• you are involved in contingency planning to manage climate extremes and abrupt changes.

Don’t forget about the opportunities! There may be an early-mover advantage or a climate change business opportunity for you to make the most of.

The key stages of the process are:

• Identify the problem and objectives
• Establish your risk tolerance level and decision-making criteria
• Identify and assess your risks
• Identify a range of adaptation options
• Appraise your adaptation options
• Make a decision
• Implement the decision
• Monitor the decision and for new information

Stages 3, 4, and 5 allow the user to investigate the issues in varying levels of detail.

The UKCIP Adaptation Wizard is based on the same underlying principles as the Risk framework and is helpful if you are new to climate change and don’t have a good understanding of your climate risks. The framework has been designed for use alongside other tools in the UKCIP toolkit.

• UKCIP Adaptation Wizard
• UKCIP tools page

The Risk, uncertainty and decision-making framework was developed in 2003 by the Environment Agency’s Centre for Risk and Forecasting and UKCIP, with funding from Defra.