Bird flu hits prime time TV

 Business Continuity Management Briefing BCM - BCM News - Fatal Contact

A look at the ABC Movie "Fatal Contact" 

The first 'disaster' movie featuring the consequences of a Bird Flu Pandemic has aired in the US. In the movie, health workers chase bird flu around the globe in the TV special 'Fatal Contact'.

We shouldn't be surprised to see this, but movies of this type can have a very damaging effect on the real world of planning affecting peoples thinking and causing inappropriate concern or worse, a sense of hopelessness. The movie starts and ends with a peaceful closeup of birds in flight - but what happens in between is not so pretty. "Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America" aired on ABC and includes lots of eerie music, blood and corpses. The disaster flick is surely aimed at getting high ratings, but there's also the serious possibility of arousing public panic.

"It's unfortunate that a lot of people may be scared by it," said Thomas W. Skinner, a spokesman for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who has seen the film. "But the best antidote for fear is information, and if it makes people get more up to speed on pandemics, that's a good thing."

So far, the avian flu virus H5N1 is primarily infecting birds. While about 200 people worldwide have been infected (about half of whom died), the virus is not easily transmissible between humans. That could change, and that's where the two-hour movie takes off. In the movie, the deadly virus has mutated, and an American businessman brings it home from a trip to Hong Kong. The timeframe is unclear, but the virus infects millions of Americans, straining police and hospitals.

The movie forecasts mass graves, food shortages and lots of rib-shattering coughs. When accurate, movies can be highly effective at educating the public on health dangers, said Gail Love, a communications professor at Cal State Fullerton. "People are not particularly interested in hearing an educational lecture," Love said. "It makes the information not only more palatable but also more meaningful to see it played out in a dramatic scenario."

The network consulted with a published flu expert, who on Monday criticized the film as overdramatized. Still, some of the made-for-television scenario matches up closely with the U.S. government's own predictions.

In the next sections we look at some specific aspects of the movie

THE DISEASE

In the movie, people cough so hard they break their ribs. Their noses bleed uncontrollably. People get dizzy and collapse. They eventually drown in their own blood. It's true that bird flu attacks the lungs more aggressively than the typical flu, experts say. Reported symptoms have included nosebleeds, vomiting, high fever and organ failure, according to the American Council on Science and Health. But it's not just the flu that's deadly, at least onscreen. One woman in the movie nearly dies of dehydration and starvation because her cupboards are bare.

Stores aren't restocked. People fight in the aisles over the last bottle of water. Another man dies in the film because he runs out of diabetes medications. Food, water and drug shortages are all a possibility, experts say. The US government recommends keeping a two weeks supply of necessities.

DEATH TOLL By the end of the movie, the worldwide death toll is at 25.million and counting. The U.S. government's worst-case scenario puts the American toll at 2million. Insurance companies go bankrupt in the film from paying out millions of life insurance policies.

That won't happen, said Weili Lu, assistant professor and director of the Center for Insurance Studies at Cal State Fullerton. Insurance companies have researched pandemics and prepared for the risks, Lu said, adding that some companies might even profit from introducing bird flu coverage. The movie depicts dump trucks tossing corpses into mass graves. Other bodies are torched in bonfires. That's highly unlikely, according to the government. The funeral industry is involved with the government in planning for a possible spike in deaths.

LOCAL PLANS In the movie, National Guard troops return from Iraq to bolster security. Makeshift hospitals are set up in subway stations. Respirators and medications run low and those fictional situations are real possibilities. “We are strained in our health care system today because we don't have a lot of excess for anything, whether it's an earthquake or pandemic flu" said Dr. Kristi Koenig, UCI's director of public health preparedness. There probably won't be help from the federal government, Koenig said. “You're on your own because this is something that will be widespread, she said. Some of the scenarios being looked at for Orange County include recruiting nursing students and paramedics to work as temporary nurses, relaxing the nurse-to-patient ratios, and finding alternate sites such as gymnasiums to set up patient beds.

WHAT YOU CAN DO Real-life flu prevention includes frequent hand washing, using tissues and staying home when sick, Koenig says. That'll be true if bird flu hits as well. A vaccine most probably will not be available when a pandemic starts because of the mutating nature of the virus, experts say. Potential vaccines are being tested, but it's difficult to develop them before the makeup of the virus is fully known. The government is stockpiling anti-viral medications such as Tamiflu, which could be effective in early treatment of the flu.

Above all, it's important that people not panic, said Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association.  “There are many other possible futures other than the one the movie is portraying,  he said. “We could have enough vaccine. We could have enough pharmaceuticals. We could have a virus that is very contagious but not lethal."

Continuity Forum Comment As all professionals realise the threat of Pandemic is real, but also uncertain. The world is laying better preparations than ever before to coutner the effects of an Influenza Pandemic and sense must prevail. We can't ignore the risks and more organisations do need to be acting to develop an appropriate response for their organisation, people and communities.

What is neither helpful, or frankly tastefull, is exploitation and/or scare-mongering. Fatal Contact does push the edge here, but with certain dramatic licence excepted, it does portray a close to worse case scenario reasonably accurately. One thought that did cross our minds though was exactly how ABC had planned to cope with the issues posed by the movie? Interestingly, when we called them to ask no answer was forthcoming and this makes us wonder whether they had decided to put profit before preparation.

END

The Continuity Forum will be hosting a number of special events and workshops covering the issues raised by Bird Flu to discuss and assist organisations extend and adpt their BCM planning.

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