Pandemics: Getting ready for the inevitable

Category Business Continuity Management BCM - Bird Flu - BCM

"Foolish to ignore risks" says WHO

Rick Cudworth has 20 consultants at KPMG in London advising corporate clients on all aspects of business continuity, but in recent months a third of their time has been taken up on a single issue: preparations for pandemic flu. "A lot of companies are asking us to assess how ready they are," he says. "The issue is now being taken quite seriously."

Confirmed cases of infection by the H5N1 virus may so far have been identified in less than 200 people around the world, and just half that number have died. But governments, organisations and companies alike are gearing up for a future possible human outbreak. With the World Health Organisation and others arguing that it is a question of "when not if" a flu pandemic breaks out, whether from a mutation of the current H5N1 strain or a different on, it would be foolish to ignore the risks and fail to consider how best to respond.

In the past year, the spread of the virus out of south east Asia into Africa and Europe, with the discovery of dead wild birds and a few domesticated poultry and pets, has brought home the risks. Human deaths as near to the European Union as Turkey have highlighted the consequences to policymakers and the public.

These events created a political momentum that has accelerated the launch of national and regional pandemic preparation plans around the world. They have triggered public health measures including orders for antiviral drugs and vaccines. Among companies, HSBC's statement at the start of 2006 that it was gearing up for peak absenteeism during a pandemic as high as 50 per cent of its workforce 'far beyond the official forecasts' sent ripples across the boardrooms.

With estimates that 25 per cent of the population could be infected, the UK Cabinet Office projects total deaths of up to 700,000 people in the UK alone. It argues that large companies should prepare for staff absences of 15 per cent during a two or three week peak, and small companies up to twice that proportion. Its advice to business planners includes putting in place policies actively to encourage those who think they may be ill to stay at home, to minimise the risk of infection. It also stresses the need to ensure adequate hygiene measures such as hand-washing facilities are in place.

However, a flu pandemic combines all of the most frustrating elements for planners: it concerns a virus that no one can accurately predict whether, when or to what extent it will emerge in a form transmissible between and dangerous to humans.

"There has been a lot of information about doomsday scenarios," cautions Mr Cudworth from KPMG. "That puts people off believing they can do anything. The reality is that it will probably affect organisations, reduce the workforce, and make transport a bit more difficult. Organisations need to continue to operate as effectively as they can."

He argues that pandemic planning is shifting the traditional focus of risk managers. They are being forced to think beyond the issues of technological support via IT back-up systems, and facilities support through establishing alternative locations. Instead, the main concern is how to deal with people, and particularly how best to cope with significant staffing shortages over the several weeks of an outbreak, and the shifting impact of the virus on suppliers and customers.

Cudworth warns of the "backlog trap", by which a small reduction in resources coupled with a small increase in demand can create an exponential pile-up of work that may take many weeks to resolve. Examples include a surge in calls for closure of bank accounts on death of those infected, and a rise in telephone banking. If key staff are off work, the impact could be substantial, potentially putting banks in breach of their regulatory duties, which is one reason why the financial services sector has spent considerable time on pandemic planning. If it fails to function, and consumers cannot gain access to cash, the repercussions would be broad.

Jim Preen from Crisis Solutions, a consultancy that runs simulation exercises “ the vast majority of which are now focused on the pandemic“ cites one client bank busy re-training and re-familiarising in IT anyone who has previously worked in that department. "It's important for companies to focus on what really makes them tick," he says. If drawing up plans are a first step, and exercises to test them are an important second one, many imponderables remain. Planners can only hope that when the next real pandemic comes, it will be in a mild form. END